By Cyril Mbah, Abuja.
Nigerians were baffled when it was announced that former Kogi State Governor, Alhaji Yahaya Bello has won the nomination to represent the All Progressives Congress in the Kogi Central Senatorial District election coming up in 2027.
Public reaction to Bello’s emergence is understandable because the former governor has been standing trial since last year over allegations of money laundering and embezzlement of million of naira as governor of Kogi State.
Yahaya Bello is facing ongoing trial for allegedly embezzling and laundering public funds totaling ₦80.2 billion in one case, and up to ₦110.4 billion in a separate FCT High Court case.
In the ₦80.2 Billion Case: Bello was arraigned by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on a 19-count charge bordering on money laundering, criminal breach of trust, and misappropriation of public funds. The EFCC alleges that the state funds were diverted and used to fraudulently purchase luxury properties in Abuja and Dubai.
The ₦110.4 Billion Case: In a separate trial at the FCT High Court in Abuja, Bello also faces charges related to the alleged diversion of ₦110.4 billion in public resources. Bello has pleaded not guilty to the charges. His trials, which have featured testimonies from bank and government officials regarding massive statutory account withdrawals and cash transfers, have been ongoing in the Federal High Court and FCT High Court.
If the political chessboard holds as it is today, then Kogi Central Senatorial District will be hosting one of Nigeria’s most consequential contests in 2027 with former Governor Yahaya Bello of the All Progressives Congress slugging it out against incumbent Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan.
The race is already being framed as a clash of titans. On one side stands a two-term governor with a statewide structure, incumbency legacy, and deep control over APC machinery. On the other is a first-term controversial senator who turned a once-unwinnable seat for her party into a PDP victory, built a national profile on gender and accountability politics, and has shown she can defy the odds. The outcome will say so much about the future of Kogi politics as it will about APC’s internal power balance ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The Stakes for Kogi Central. Kogi Central comprises five LGAs: Adavi, Ajaokuta, Okene, Okehi, and Ogori/Magongo. The district is ethnically homogenous, dominated by the Ebira people, which means ethnic voting will be less of a factor than in Kogi West or East. Instead, local government strongholds, clan networks, and personal loyalty to political patrons have historically decided elections.
For the APC, losing the seat in 2023 to Natasha was a shock. It marked the first time PDP won Kogi Central since 2011. For Natasha, retaining it in 2027 will mean proving her victory was not a one-off protest vote against Bello’s anointed candidate. For Bello, reclaiming Kogi Central for the APC is about legacy and relevance after leaving Lugard House in January 2024.
Yahaya Bello’s variables and strengths
Bello has entered the senatorial race with three clear advantages. First is structure. As governor for eight years, he built a political network that stretches into every ward in Kogi Central. Council chairmen, party executives, and traditional rulers appointed or aligned during his tenure remain influential. In Nigerian senatorial races, that grassroots machine often outweighs personal popularity.
Second is APC’s federal incumbency. With President Bola Tinubu in power and the APC controlling the center, Bello can leverage federal appointments, projects, and party resources to consolidate support. Bello’s position is strengthened because the APC opted for consensus primary election that favoured sitting party leaders.
Third is the incumbency bounce from his governorship. His supporters point to road projects, the Confluence University, and civil service reforms as achievements that resonate locally. Even critics acknowledge that his name and his recognition in Ebira land remains high.
Bello’s challenges
The liabilities are equally significant. The anti-incumbency sentiment built up during his second term, fueled by allegations of unpaid salaries, youth unemployment, and a combative political style are issues to worry about. Many Ebira voters saw him as distant after 2019, accusing him of focusing more on statewide and national politics.
Legal and reputational issues. These issues could also shape the race. Yahaya Bello has faced multiple corruption charges and public controversies since leaving office. While legal outcomes are unpredictable in Nigeria, negative media cycles can dent voter enthusiasm, especially among undecided middle-class voters in Okene and Ajaokuta.
Finally, the intra-party opposition within the APC is real. Some APC stakeholders in Kogi Central believe Natasha’s 2023 win exposed a fatigue with Bello’s style and want a new face to win back the seat. If these concerns are genuinely loud and competitive, Bello cannot take the ticket for granted.
On the other hand, Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan’s Variables and Strengths are many.
Natasha’s biggest asset is her personal brand or style. She built a national profile long before the 2023 election through activism, legal battles against Ajaokuta steel’s stagnation, and media savvy. That profile translated into votes beyond PDP’s traditional base, pulling support from women, youths, and urban voters frustrated with the APC.
Second is the incumbency factor. As senator, she has used official oversight roles and constituency projects to maintain visibility. Her vocal stance on national issues gives her a platform that few first-term senators enjoy, keeping her in the public eye ahead of 2027.
Third is the protest vote factor. In 2023, many voters supported her as a rebuke to Bello’s dominance. If that anti-establishment mood persists, she can frame 2027 as a referendum on whether Kogi Central wants to return to the old order.
Natasha’s challenges. Her path is not without obstacles. There are party dynamics, which have become the biggest. The PDP in Kogi State remains fragmented and under-resourced compared to the APC. If the national PDP fails to reposition itself, Natasha risks running on a weak platform, even with a strong personal vote.
Incumbency scrutiny will also increase. Constituents will judge her on what she delivered in four years, such as roads, water projects, scholarships, and job facilitation. Any perception of under-performance or over-focus on Abuja politics could erode goodwill.
Lastly, gender and cultural factors still play a role in Kogi Central. While Ebira society is not uniformly conservative, a male challenger with strong local ties can mobilise traditional networks in ways that a female candidate must work harder to counter and Yahaya Bello, the Lion of Kogi Stateis known to be one that gets what he badly wants.
The Role of the APC primary
The single biggest variable may be how APC handled its primary election. If the party had insisted on an open, delegate-based primary election, Bello would have faced tough competition from other Ebira APC stalwarts who see 2027 as their chance. A fractured primary could weaken the eventual candidate or even push aggrieved aspirants to work against the party.
The APC decided to opt for consensus and backed Bello to remove internal friction but it risks demoralising other aspirants and reinforcing the narrative that APC does not practice internal democracy. The party’s choice will signal whether it prioritises unity or loyalty to one person.
Voter behavior and key Issues.
Three issues are likely to dominate the càmpaigns leadi g to the election: jobs and youth unemployment, infrastructure, and security.
Ajaokuta’s moribund steel complex remains a political symbol. Natasha has made it a talking point; but Bello will point to his efforts while in office and will likely blame federal bottlenecks.
Youth unemployment is acute in Okene and Adavi. Whichever candidate can credibly link federal job schemes, skills programmes, and private investment to Kogi Central will gain an edge. Security, particularly kidnapping along the Lokoja-Okene corridor, will also shape perceptions of who can deliver federal support.
Traditional Institutions and religious networks
Ebira traditional rulers and religious leaders wield quiet but real influence. Both candidates will court them heavily. Bello’s advantage lies in appointments made during his governorship. Natasha’s advantage is her ability to frame herself as a reformer challenging entrenched, conservative interests. The positioning of key Obas and Imams in the months before the election will be a leading indicator.
Money, media, and mobilization
Senatorial races in Nigeria are expensive. Bello’s access to APC’s war chest and former allies gives him an edge in logistics and media buying. Natasha’s edge is in digital mobilisation and national media attention, which she has used effectively to crowd-fund and shape narratives. In 2027, the race will likely be decided by who combines effective grassroots mobilisation with a coherent message that cuts through voter apathy.
Factors that may determine the winner of the election.
Four factors stand out. First, candidate selection. The APC primary that produced Bwllo as a credible alternative could split the pro-Natasha vote. The consensus pick mày have consolidatesmd it. Secondly, delivery record. Natasha must show tangible projects; Bello must reframe his governorship legacy in a way that feels relevant to 2027 voters. Third, national political climate. If Nigerians remain frustrated with economic hardship, anti-incumbency could hurt both APC and PDP, favouring the candidate who best positions as the outsider. Fourth, voter turnout. Kogi Central has a history of low turnout outside governorship years. Mobilising first-time voters and women will be decisive. Natasha has an edge here; Bello’s machine is better at turning out older, rural voters.
Conclusion
On paper, Yahaya Bello starts with structural advantages: party control, resources, and a legacy of governorship. Natasha counters with personal appeal, incumbency, and the ability to frame herself as the voice of change.
The race will not be won on rhetorics alone. It will be won in ward meetings in Okehi, youth forums in Adavi, and project sites in Ajaokuta. If the APC manages its primary well and Bello runs a campaign focused on delivery rather than personality, he has a strong chance of reclaiming the seat. If Natasha consolidates her incumbency, avoids PDP infighting, and keeps her national profile working for her locally, she can make Kogi Central a PDP stronghold.
Either way, 2027 in Kogi Central will be more than a senatorial contest. It will be a test of whether structures or personality, legacy or disruption, defines the next phase of Ebira politics.
